Christine O’Donnell wins GOP primary in DE

[Maggie]

Interesting race, thoughts anyone? I have my own but; frankly, I am torn – from a tactical standpoint. Notwithstanding, I think the takeaway from this race (as well as races in Florida, Nevada, Alaska, etc.) is this: Any politician, in the tea parties’ crosshairs, Republican or Democrat, should be very concerned.

[SB Shock]

I don't know much about this race except the favorite republican was a rhino. My takeaway is people are tired of the political corruption. Tired of the excuses. Tired of the politicians who give lip service to values but once in power are more concerned about their own reelection than being the servants they are suppose to.

[WuDrWu]

!

I realize it is all about Politics, but it is refreshing to see beliefs trump politics for a change.

If all elections were like that, we'd all be better off I think.

Yes, it is sad that this likely puts the seat in the hands of the Democrats. But at least conservatives stood up for what they believed was the right path, and not who they thought could beat the Dem.

I doubt, though, she'll be getting Carl Rove's support.......YIKES!



This result probably seals the fate for any Republican hope to take the Senate in 7 weeks, not that there was a huge chance of that happening anyway.

[SubGod22]

As long as beliefs triumph politics I'll never complain. We would be better off if all elections were done that way. I know nothing about the race but you guys make it sound as though there's no chance she can win which is unfortunate. But it still beats voting for someone who has a chance of winning but you disagree with on way too many things or who has failed to live up to what they've said in the past.

[Maggie]

I don't know much about this race except the favorite republican was a rhino. My takeaway is people are tired of the political corruption. Tired of the excuses. Tired of the politicians who give lip service to values but once in power are more concerned about their own reelection than being the servants they are suppose to.

Well the basics on this race are as follows:

(1) Castle who O’Donnell beat is a fairly typical eastern Republican – the election is for Biden’s old senate seat. Whether you call Castle a moderate or a RINO is really not a distinction worth making. Besides, in some quarters, and in some areas of the country, the terms are synonymous. Bottom-line, he is what he is – he will go off the conservative reservation with regard to issues like cap-in-trade;

(2) The polling suggests that Castle would have likely won the general election against the Democratic candidate Chris Coons; and that O’Donnell is likely to lose the general election – we are talking huge percentage swings – Castle was up over 20% points on Coon; while O’Donnell is around 20% points down;

(3) O’Donnell is deeply flawed candidate – to provide a comprehensive list of all her “issues” would require much more time than I have right now; but trust me – she has serious credibility issues. That said, as far as I can tell she is fine on policy, etc. More ideologically pure, I suppose – hence the tea party backing;

(4) The race pit put many high profile conservatives against one another: Palin, DeMint, Mark Levin, Rush pulling for O’Donnell and guys like Krauthammer, Kristol, Ponnuru, Goldberg, etc. pulling for Castle - largely with an eye on the global senate picture – go with the candidate that can win.

I have formed no strong opinions about O’Donnell, though I understand the reservations about her. I do not much weep for guys like Castle and rather enjoy the sight of them going down in flames. Also, I think pundits that have pronounced O’Donnell DOA might want to take a step back and reassess. She will have a difficult time winning; but this election season is proving to be very unpredictable.

Part of the lesson here, I think, is that the Right needs a lot more candidate-recruiting efforts. If some conservatives do not like O’Donnell (because she has a lot of baggage), then they should be out identifying better candidates to run against vulnerable RINOs - because somebody is going to run. These incumbent takedowns are going to inspire a lot of new people to get into electoral politics (a very good thing), many of them without the sort of experience or backgrounds that “establishment” types are comfortable with. Power, like nature, abhors a vacuum.

[Maggie]

Re: !

This result probably seals the fate for any Republican hope to take the Senate in 7 weeks, not that there was a huge chance of that happening anyway.

Winning back the senate matters less than destroying the filibuster-proof majority. And the GOP will do that with room to spare.

[ISASO]

Maybe this election cycle will become more about voting for the right person instead voting for the same-ol' same-ol' because a few people declare a certain candidate can win a general election due to name recognition. If enough people vote for the "right" person isn't the term "electable candidate" out the window?

And yes, I wasted my vote on Ross Perot. I'm not sad that I wasted it. It seemed like the right thing to do, given my options.

Wouldn't the pacifist, isolationist libs in this country throw a fit if Dwight Eisenhower ran for the Presidency today? They would paint him as Atilla the Hun.

[Maggie]

Maybe this election cycle will become more about voting for the right person instead voting for the same-ol' same-ol' because a few people declare a certain candidate can win a general election due to name recognition. If enough people vote for the "right" person isn't the term "electable candidate" out the window?

The question is: Is O’Donnell the right person? Was she the best option in the grand scheme of things.

The problem in this particular race, the problem with O’Donnell, is the fact that she has serious personal baggage. I have much less of a problem running the right conservative in what might be a losing race. I’m just not sure that she is the right candidate; she will have a hard time defending conservative principles, in a very Democratic state, when she is being drowned out by her personal issues. Another way of putting it is that she is not Scott Brown (who, by the way, is not a down-the-line conservative – but about as good as you are going to get in Massachusetts and still get elected). The tea party was smart to back Brown, even though he may not agree with them on very issue.

The tea partiers may have overplayed their hand in this race. It happens. Winning primaries is all well and good (and can have an influence on the party generally); however, you have to win the race that matters, the general election, to have any real impact.

[ISASO]

Are Delaware residents still in love with Marxists now that they've had a taste of them in power for 20 months?

[Maggie]

Are Delaware residents still in love with Marxists now that they've had a taste of them in power for 20 months?

Kind of…(the emphasis in the text is mine)

Coons up big

Republicans more than likely cost themselves a Senate seat last night. Chris Coons begins the general election in Delaware with a 50-34 lead over Christine O'Donnell. Mike Castle would have led Coons by a 45-35 margin.

While O'Donnell may have ingratiated herself to Delaware's small group of registered Republicans over the last month she's turned off everyone else. An August Daily Kos/PPP poll in Delaware found her favorability rating at 23/33. It's now 29/50.

If Castle had won he would have received more Democratic support than any other Republican Senate candidate in the country. Now our polling suggests with O'Donnell's victory that Coons will win more Republicans than any other Democratic Senate candidate in the country. That's because of a general unwillingness to support O'Donnell from Castle's moderate base- folks from the centrist wing of the GOP are planning to support Coons 54-31. Overall he takes a full 25% of the GOP vote while also largely consolidating the Democratic base for a 72-13 lead on that front. He also has a narrow 42-36 advantage with independents, a group Democrats are losing with most everywhere else.

Only 31% of voters in the state think O'Donnell's fit to hold public office while 49% think that she is not. Even with Republicans in the state less than half at 48% believe that she is. That may seem inconsistent with her victory last night but keep in mind that our general election poll includes GOP voters who were not planning to vote in yesterday's primary. Only 33% of independents and 16% of Democrats believe O'Donnell's fit.

Coons himself is largely undefined. 36% of voters don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion and those who have split pretty evenly with 31% seeing him favorably and 33% unfavorably. But given O'Donnell's considerable baggage he will probably win this race as long as he can avoid making any serious mistakes in the next 7 weeks. And his personal numbers are likely to go up as voters in the state shift their attention to the general election and begin getting to know him better.

The result of the Delaware primary last night is the best thing that has happened to Democrats electorally since election night in 2008.

[RoyalShock]

I don't much about either candidate, only that I heard Mark Levin on multiple occasions basically call Castle a Democrat.

I think O'Donnell winning the DE primary is no-lose. If she lost, you'd have two left-siders in the general anyway.

Is O'Donnell the "right" candidate? I don't know, but based on the opinions of the conservative side of the GOP, Castle sure the heck isn't.

I hope this election cycle is the beginning of of the end for the "electable candidate", as ISASO alluded to above.

[WuDrWu]

Maggie, what's the word on the Congressional District in your neck of the woods that went blue in a special election last year.

I don't remember the details, but it was a 3 way race that went blue for the first time in like 100 years. Is the incumbent Dem running for re-election and have primaries taken place? Is there a chance for a repeat of the same screwball outcome?

Thanks as always for your insight.

[ISASO]

I don't much about either candidate, only that I heard Mark Levin on multiple occasions basically call Castle a Democrat.

I think O'Donnell winning the DE primary is no-lose. If she lost, you'd have two left-siders in the general anyway.

Is O'Donnell the "right" candidate? I don't know, but based on the opinions of the conservative side of the GOP, Castle sure the heck isn't.

I hope this election cycle is the beginning of of the end for the "electable candidate", as ISASO alluded to above.

This is probably over-simplifying a body of work, but Castle voted for Cap and Trade, right? That appears to be some of the most destructive legislation since, since...well...ObamaCare.

This is Joe Biden's seat. It's not really the end of the world if it's lost but sends a shot across the bow of incumbent RINO's.

[wu_shizzle]

This is Joe Biden's seat. It's not really the end of the world if it's lost but sends a shot across the bow of incumbent RINO's.

This may be the greatest good that comes from this.

A reminder than conservatism wins when given a chance and for far too long Washington-minded Republicans haven't even tried in many districts.

[Maggie]

Look the bottom-line is the tea party people are pushing the envelope in terms of selecting candidates and I don’t have a problem with them doing so. In fact, due in large part to the tea party come November we are virtually guaranteed to see a number of new conservative faces in the House and the Senate - solid conservatives and they appear willing and able to defend their positions. Any commentary you hear over the next few days about the teaparty being damaging to the GOP is rubbish. On the whole they have had an unquestionably positive influence. I just fear they misfired in DE.

The problem I have with O’Donnell in terms of the general election is not that she is too conservative for DE and will have a hard time winning; but, rather, she is a poor candidate and will have a hard time winning. I have read some pretty alarming stuff about her that call into question her honesty and, frankly, her mental stability (when you have 50ish% of the voters telling pollsters she is not “fit” to hold office – that is a big problem) Granted these could have been cheap attacks and her numbers will probably rise (at least I hope so); but regardless – O’Donnell will immediately be on the defensive.

And Castle, for all his ideological faults (and he would drive me crazy on cap-and-trade, card check, etc.), that fact is he did vote against the second stimulus, Obamacare, and signed on to a pledge to attempt to repeal Obamacare. Obviously, Chris Coons is going to do none of those things. Furthermore, the areas in which I have disagreements with Castle are not legislation that is going to go anywhere next year (of course, other issues would likely arise where his RINO leanings could become an issue).

Would I still prefer it if the tea parties had found a stronger candidate? Of course. Do I think it’s better to have a moderate Republican than a liberal Democrat in that seat? Yes (tea partiers certainly understood this with the Scott Brown election). But that said, I’d rather see the tea parties go too far here and there while shooting for the moon than see them go not far enough everywhere. So I will be pulling for Ms. O’Donnell to pull off a miracle.